RDG BROKERS » budget

Budget: Soccer World Cup

RDG Brokers — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 23:59:04 +0000

Good Morning, We once again managed to trade sideways, as most companies are probably busy with budget and strategy meetings. Local importers and exporters showed little interest in the currency markets yesterday. Most traders are still trying to figure out what impact the Soccer World Cup will have on the local currency. For now we remain in tight ranges until fresh economic indicators give some direction to the currency markets. Developed countries may slip back into recession if they abandon strategies deployed to battle the global financial crisis too early, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Monday. Recovery in private demand and employment are necessary conditions for governments to begin unwinding policies designed to support their economies, though the right timing depends on specific conditions in each nation, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said. “Recovery in advanced economies has been sluggish,” he told reporters in Tokyo. “We have to be cautious because the recovery has been fragile.” Marek Belka, the head of the IMF’s European department, echoed Strauss-Kahn’s comments, saying the continent’s economy was not yet on solid ground.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.3800-7.4300
Rand / Euro	10.6200-10.6700
Rand / Sterling	12.1000-12.1500
Jpy / Rand	12.20-12.25
Jpy / Usd	90.43
Usd / Euro	1.4388
Gbp / Usd	1.6400
Gold	$1 136.00
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.3500-7.5500
Rand / Euro	10.5500-10.7500
Rand / Sterling	12.0000-12.2000
Jpy / Rand	12.10-12.30

Exchange Control Relaxed

RDG Brokers — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 13:37:29 +0000

After yesterday’s action the release of CPI today should be a non event. Market expectations are at 6.2 percent slightly lower than last month. However the big mover yesterday was the budget speech. Even though the relaxation of exchange control measures we perceived as positive the huge projected budget deficit over the next few years had a negative impact on the rand. It is clear that department of finance also prefer a weaker rand. Taking all these negative factors in consideration the rand actually performed well to be at 7.67/$ this morning. Euro and gold dropped so a move toward 7.80/$ is possible. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Tuesday said the dollar would remain the world’s main reserve currency for a long time as the country takes the right measures to support the economy. “I think the dollar will remain the principal reserve currency for a long period of time,” Geithner said at a conference sponsored by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association in New York. However, he also said the dollar’s position is not a privilege and comes with responsibilities and obligations that the United States must uphold.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.6500-7.7000
Rand / Euro	11.3300-11.3800
Rand / Sterling	12.5300-12.5800
Jpy / Rand	11.90 -11.95
Jpy / Usd	91.33
Usd / Euro	1.4833
Gbp / Usd	1.6369
Gold	$1 040.00
Brent	$77.75
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.5800-7.7800
Rand / Euro	11.2500-11.4500
Rand / Sterling	12.4500-12.6500
Jpy / Rand	11.80-12.00

Markets slightly Bearish

RDG Brokers — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 08:18:09 +0000

South Africa’s rand weakened yesterday, breaking above the 7.50/$ mark in quiet trading conditions. Local traders saw off shore fund managers selling rand for currency as the emerging market sentiment turned slightly bearish as the Dow Jones closed once again below the 10 000 mark with analysts cited a correlation between the Dow and emerging markets. Gold is down, euro back below 1.50 which will keep pressure on the rand. Traders will keep an eye on the mini budget this afternoon for future movements on the local unit. The dollar eased against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, trimming some of the previous day’s sharp gains as investor selling of stretched higher-yielding currencies and the euro paused. The euro had its steepest drop since early August on Monday, falling nearly 1 percent, and the dollar index posted its best daily gain since September as investors unwound short dollar positions after a sharp fall in stocks and commodities. The euro drew some demand from Asian investors, recovering from the day’s lows, while the Aussie rebounded as some market players remained doubtful that the low-yielding dollar would strengthen further. But other traders said the dollar may rise more in the near term as short-term speculators take profits from their bets this year on risky assets with the approach of their business year-end, which typically comes in November.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.5300-7.5800
Rand / Euro	11.2200-11.2700
Rand / Sterling	12.3200-12.3700
Jpy / Rand	12.15 -12.20
Jpy / Usd	92.05
Usd / Euro	1.4905
Gbp / Usd	1.6340
Gold	$1 042.00
Brent	$77.35
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.4000-7.6000
Rand / Euro	11.1500-11.3500
Rand / Sterling	12.2000-12.4000
Jpy / Rand	12.10-12.30

Budget Tomorrow

RDG Brokers — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 09:18:02 +0000

South Africa’s rand remained in a 7.40/$ to 7.50/$ trading range on Friday. We do not expect too much action today as we have quite a busy week on the economic front. Locally we have the mini budget tomorrow and the release of inflation figures later in the week. The U.S. 3RD quarter GDP will also be released later this week. Markets should remain relatively quiet until all economic data has been analyzed by market participants. The dollar fell to a 14-month low against the euro on Monday as a Chinese report saying Beijing should increase its holdings of euros and yen in its foreign reserves led investors to sell the greenback. The yen also got a boost from the opinion piece in the Financial News, a paper published by the People’s Bank of China, which said that the dollar should remain the principal currency in China’s foreign exchange reserves but that the share of Euros and yen should increase. The Australian dollar also benefited from the article as investors believe the Aussie has been included in the currencies that China and other central banks have bought to diversify foreign reserves. “The comments from China are pretty strong and that is supporting the euro,” said Tony Bieber, forex analyst at Suncorp.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.4300-7.4800
Rand / Euro	11.2000-11.2500
Rand / Sterling	12.1500-12.2000
Jpy / Rand	12.28 -12.33
Jpy / Usd	91.80
Usd / Euro	1.5043
Gbp / Usd	1.6310
Gold	$1 055.00
Brent	$78.44
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.3500-7.5500
Rand / Euro	11.1500-11.3500
Rand / Sterling	12.1000-12.3000
Jpy / Rand	12.20-12.40

Rand Dips over Budget Expectations

RDG Brokers — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:40:36 +0000

We remain fairly quiet, however the rand weakened overnight after minister of finance Gordhan warned that the budget deficit could be much larger than expected. We are in the mid 7.80 and do not expect too much action. In the bigger picture we are in the 7.70/$ to 8.30/$ trading range, which is good news for both importers and exporters as stability is all that is required to manage currency risk.

Dollar interbank rates fell to record lows in Singapore on Wednesday in spite of a slight pick-up in interest rate volatilities and wider spreads as fresh fear over bank failures caused financial stocks to fall. Private equity and hedge fund Cerberus Capital Management, which has been hit hard by investment losses, on Tuesday dismissed rumours it is in danger of default. But trading in Asia continued to be dogged by fears that a major bank or a hedge fund would fail, a factor that has played a part in driving U.S. stock markets down three days in a row.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
7. 7.8500-7.9000 -7.7700

Rand / Euro
11.1800-11.2300

Rand / Sterling
12.6800-12.7300

Jpy / Rand
11.75-11.80

Jpy / Usd
92.80

Usd / Euro
1.4215

Gbp / Usd
1.6130

Gold
$955.00

Brent
$68.02

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.7500-7.9500

Rand / Euro
11.1000-11.3000

Rand / Sterling
12.6500-12.8500

Jpy / Rand
11.65-11.85