We once again managed to trade sideways, as most companies are probably busy with budget and strategy meetings. Local importers and exporters showed little interest in the currency markets yesterday. Most traders are still trying to figure out what impact the Soccer World Cup will have on the local currency. For now we remain in tight ranges until fresh economic indicators give some direction to the currency markets.

Developed countries may slip back into recession if they abandon strategies deployed to battle the global financial crisis too early, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Monday. Recovery in private demand and employment are necessary conditions for governments to begin unwinding policies designed to support their economies, though the right timing depends on specific conditions in each nation, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said. “Recovery in advanced economies has been sluggish,” he told reporters in Tokyo. “We have to be cautious because the recovery has been fragile.” Marek Belka, the head of the IMF’s European department, echoed Strauss-Kahn’s comments, saying the continent’s economy was not yet on solid ground. Current levels Rand / Usd 7.3800-7.4300 Rand / Euro 10.6200-10.6700 Rand / Sterling 12.1000-12.1500 Jpy / Rand 12.20-12.25 Jpy / Usd 90.43 Usd / Euro 1.4388 Gbp / Usd 1.6400 Gold $1 136.00 Expected ranges Rand / Usd 7.3500-7.5500 Rand / Euro 10.5500-10.7500 Rand / Sterling 12.0000-12.2000 Jpy / Rand 12.10-12.30 ]]> http://rdgbrokers.co.za/2010/01/budgetsoccer-world-cup/feed/ 0 http://rdgbrokers.co.za/2009/11/rand-holding-ground/ http://rdgbrokers.co.za/2009/11/rand-holding-ground/#comments Thu, 26 Nov 2009 12:15:01 +0000 RDG Brokers http://rdgbrokers.co.za/?p=311 South Africa’s rand continued to rally in late afternoon trade yesterday, after the euro broke back above 1.50 against the dollar. Gold is once again trading at an all time high this morning which is a further positive for the local unit. Inflation data released yesterday showed that CPI fell back into the MPC targets at 5.9 percent, however economists expect inflation to rise again. We have seen solid importer demand at current levels and we are back at levels where S.A. Reserve Bank is not comfortable with the rand’s strength, but with the higher commodity prices there could be scope for further strength.

The dollar was under pressure on all fronts on Thursday, after breaking down to 15-month lows the previous day, and looked in peril of marking a 14-year low against the yen as Japan signaled it was watching but unlikely to step in. Dealers said short-term players continued to sell the dollar against the Japanese currency, after it fell to a 10-month low of 87.21 yen JPY= on Wednesday, although Japanese companies were buying dollars at the lower levels, helping keep it off the low. The catalyst for Wednesday’s breakdown, which took the greenback to a 15-month low against the euro and a basket of currencies, was an indication from the Federal Reserve that the dollar’s fall has been orderly and interest rates will stay low for some time. Market players said it was likely to remain under pressure in potentially volatile trading on Thursday, when U.S. markets are closed for Thanksgiving. But talk of an options barrier at 87.00 yen, as well as expected buy orders ahead of last January’s 13-year low of 87.10 yen, could lend it some support. Current levels Rand / Usd 7.3300-7.3800 Rand / Euro 11.1000-11.1500 Rand / Sterling 12.2500-12.3000 Jpy / Rand 11.75-11.80 Jpy / Usd 86.70 Usd / Euro 1.5105 Gbp / Usd 1.6688 Gold $1 193.00 Expected ranges Rand / Usd 7.3000-7.5000 Rand / Euro 11.0500-11.2500 Rand / Sterling 12.1500-12.3500 Jpy / Rand 11.70-11.90

article courtesy of Accredinet Financial Solutions

Group of Seven financial ministers and central bank governors will likely discuss the economic and financial developments that are behind recent currency moves at their meeting this weekend, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Friday. “Compared with the G20, the G7 consists of members that have major financial markets. That’s why it’s easier for the G7 to be a forum for discussing the foreign exchange market, Shirakawa told reporters upon his arrival in Istanbul. Finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 — the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada — will meet in Istanbul on Saturday on the sidelines of meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Current levels Rand / Usd 7.6000-7.6500 Rand / Euro 11.1500-11.2000 Rand / Sterling 12.1500-12.2000 Jpy / Rand 11.75-11.80 Jpy / Usd 89.78 Usd / Euro 1.46430 Gbp / Usd 1.5977 Gold $1 004.00 Brent $68.15 Expected ranges Rand / Usd 7.5500-7.7500 Rand / Euro 11.1000-11.3000 Rand / Sterling 12.1000-12.3000 Jpy / Rand 11.70-11.90 ]]> http://rdgbrokers.co.za/2009/10/volatile-friday/feed/ 0 http://rdgbrokers.co.za/2009/09/one-year-high/ http://rdgbrokers.co.za/2009/09/one-year-high/#comments Wed, 09 Sep 2009 07:51:29 +0000 RDG Brokers http://rdgbrokers.co.za/?p=254 We continued in a 7.50/$ to 7.60/$ trading range yesterday. We have seen big demand for currency below the 7.50/$ mark and dealers are hesitant to take on large positions before getting more information on MTN/Bharti transaction. We will probably see more consolidation and trade in a 7.50/$ to 7.70/$ band until fresh factors emerges.

Asian stocks drifted lower after hitting a one-year high earlier on Wednesday and the dollar was stuck near a one-year low as investors, hopeful of an economic recovery, held back from moving more money into risky assets. European shares were set to stumble at the start, with futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 slipping 0.3 percent in early trade. The dollar, a haven for investors in difficult times, has been battered this week as market participants have favoured high-yielding investments and emerging markets. Gold’s surge above $1,000 has powered gains in other commodities and raised worries that money is being shifted out of the dollar. The Australian dollar slipped after retail sales surprisingly dropped in July and housing lending cooled. That raised questions about how soon the central bank would start raising interest rates.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
7.5300-7.5800

Rand / Euro
10.9200-10.9700

Rand / Sterling
12.4300-12.4800

Jpy / Rand
12.22-12.27

Jpy / Usd
92.45

Usd / Euro
1.4486

Gbp / Usd
1.6500

Gold
$1 001.00

Brent
$69.63

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.5000-7.7000

Rand / Euro
10.8500-11.0500

Rand / Sterling
12.4000-12.6000

Jpy / Rand
12.10-12.30

Dollar interbank rates fell to record lows in Singapore on Wednesday in spite of a slight pick-up in interest rate volatilities and wider spreads as fresh fear over bank failures caused financial stocks to fall. Private equity and hedge fund Cerberus Capital Management, which has been hit hard by investment losses, on Tuesday dismissed rumours it is in danger of default. But trading in Asia continued to be dogged by fears that a major bank or a hedge fund would fail, a factor that has played a part in driving U.S. stock markets down three days in a row.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
7. 7.8500-7.9000 -7.7700

Rand / Euro
11.1800-11.2300

Rand / Sterling
12.6800-12.7300

Jpy / Rand
11.75-11.80

Jpy / Usd
92.80

Usd / Euro
1.4215

Gbp / Usd
1.6130

Gold
$955.00

Brent
$68.02

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.7500-7.9500

Rand / Euro
11.1000-11.3000

Rand / Sterling
12.6500-12.8500

Jpy / Rand
11.65-11.85

The euro rose against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday, recovering from two-week lows after a surprisingly strong poll of German investor sentiment raised some optimism about the euro zone economy. A recovery in European share prices from steep losses the previous day also helped to boost currencies considered to be higher risk which had suffered on Monday. As a result, the dollar and the yen fell across the board. The euro hit the day’s high against the dollar of $1.4155 after the ZEW economic research institute’s economic sentiment index rose to 56.1 in August from 39.5 in July, its highest level since April 2006 and beating forecasts for 45.0. Current levels Rand / Usd 8.0700-8.1200 Rand / Euro 11.4000-11.4500 Rand / Sterling 13.3000-13.3500 Jpy / Rand 11.60-11.65 Jpy / Usd 94.20 Usd / Euro 1.4098 Gbp / Usd 1.6468 Gold $937.00 Brent $71.72 Expected ranges Rand / Usd 8.0000-8.2000 Rand / Euro 11.3000-11.5000 Rand / Sterling 13.2000-13.4000 Jpy / Rand 11.55-11.75 ]]> http://rdgbrokers.co.za/2009/08/rand-holding-up/feed/ 0 http://rdgbrokers.co.za/2009/08/trading-a-little-slow/ http://rdgbrokers.co.za/2009/08/trading-a-little-slow/#comments Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:04:59 +0000 RDG Brokers http://rdgbrokers.co.za/?p=228 South Africa’s rand recovered slightly overnight and is currently trading at around 8.10/$. The dollar once again failed to break above 8.20/$ after speculators probably squared of long currency positions ahead of the GDP data today. Trading will remain slow as banks are reporting low currency flows, due to summer holidays in Europe and we should remain in a 8.00 to 8.20/$ trading, unless we get a surprise on the GDP number which is expected at -3.2 percent for the 2nd quarter. The yen fell on Tuesday, retreating from its highest levels this month against the dollar and euro and losing ground against commodity-linked currencies, although twitchy Asian share markets made trade choppy. Eyes were on stocks after Monday’s volatile session in which shares in Shanghai lost 5.8 percent and currencies associated with risk-trades, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, shed more than 1 percent. The euro and the Aussie and kiwi dollars all rose about half a percent against the Japanese currency and clawed back some lost ground against the dollar as investors covered short positions built in the sell-off the previous day, dealers said.

Current levels

Rand / Usd 8.0800-8.1300

Rand / Euro 11.4000-11.4500

Rand / Sterling 13.2500-13.3000

Jpy / Rand 11.72-11.77

Jpy / Usd 95.15

Usd / Euro 1.4133

Gbp / Usd 1.6395

Gold $940.00

Brent $70.75

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd 8.0000-8.2000

Rand / Euro 11.3000-11.5000

Rand / Sterling 13.2000-13.4000

Jpy / Rand 11.65-11.85

The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies in a subdued market on Friday with investors largely staying on the sidelines ahead of key jobs data in the United States. The Australian dollar rose briefly after the Reserve Bank of Australia, which raised its growth forecast in a quarterly monetary policy statement, said interest rates could be expected to rise to more normal levels over time should the economy continue to improve.

Current levels
Rand / Usd
8.0500-8.1000
Rand / Euro
11.5500-11.6000
Rand / Sterling
13.5000-13.5500
Jpy / Rand
11.55-11.60
Jpy / Usd
95.40
Usd / Euro
1.4355
Gbp / Usd
1.6769
Gold
$961.00
Brent
$74.80
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd
7.9000-8.1000
Rand / Euro
11.4500-11.6500
Rand / Sterling
13.4000-13.6000
Jpy / Rand
11.50-11.70

The United States wants China to move more quickly to a freely floating exchange rate, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said on Friday. “Clearly, progress has been made. We simply want the currency to float freely,” Locke told the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. Locke, who was in China this week for talks on clean energy cooperation and trade with senior Chinese officials, declined to say what an appropriate U.S.-China exchange rate would be. “Clearly every country is suffering from economic woes. There’s been a lot of government intervention in each of their individual economies and monetary policies. But ultimately we need to see a freer floating exchange rate,” Locke said. His comments follow a decision by President Barack Obama’s administration not to label China as a currency manipulator, despite concerns Obama raised about Beijing’s exchange rate policies during last year’s presidential election campaign. Many U.S. lawmakers and manufacturers complain that China artificially depresses the price of its currency against the dollar to give Chinese companies an unfair trade advantage.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
8.0000-8.0500

Rand / Euro
11.4300 – 11.4800

Rand / Sterling
13.1000 – 13.1500

Jpy / Rand
11.81- 11.86

Jpy / Usd
94.70

Usd / Euro
1.4155

Gbp / Usd
1.6405

Gold
$944.00

Brent
$65.98

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.9300-8.0800
Rand / Euro
11.3500-11.5500
Rand / Sterling
13.3500-13.5500
Jpy / Rand
11.75-11.95

Courtesy of Accredinet Financial Solutions