RDG BROKERS » dollar

Rand takes slight knock

RDG Brokers — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 08:32:41 +0000

South Africa’s rand weakened in a volatile session yesterday, breaking back above the 7.50/$ mark overnight. The euro dropped below 1.50 against the dollar as well as a report that Dubai’s debt is much bigger than anticipated was also cited as one of the reasons for our local units weakness. I believe the main reason for this volatility is we are going into silly season and with most major players out, and speculators are having some fun forcing currencies in a direction. Most moves from now till mid January will probably not make any sense! The yen hit its highest level in 14 years on the dollar on Friday and jumped against higher-yielding currencies as investors cut risk trades on concerns about debt problems in Dubai, while Japan signalled growing discomfort with the surge. After plummeting on Thursday, the dollar plunged to a new 14-year trough below 85 yen as investors unwound yen-funded carry trades in the likes of the Australian and New Zealand dollars. In a market made thinner by a U.S. holiday on Thursday, Japanese exporters fuelled the drop by buying yen ahead of the month-end, while traders also dumped dollars due to option triggers at 85.00 yen, and sell orders kicked in below that level.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.5500-7.6000
Rand / Euro	11.2800-11.3300
Rand / Sterling	12.4000-12.4500
Jpy / Rand	11.32-11.37
Jpy / Usd	86.18
Usd / Euro	1.4908
Gbp / Usd	1.6390
Gold	$1 170.00
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.4500-7.6500
Rand / Euro	11.2000-11.4000
Rand / Sterling	12.3000-12.5000
Jpy / Rand	11.25-11.45

Courtesy of Accredinet

Positive Outlook

RDG Brokers — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 07:26:29 +0000

South Africa’s rand held onto gains and is slightly stronger this morning. Most emerging market currencies are benefiting from a positive global economic outlook. Trading should be quiet ahead of the release of U.S. jobs data this afternoon. While the euro, gold and other commodities remain well supported the rand will remain strong. The U.S. dollar held steady on Friday with investors consolidating positions ahead of October non-farm payrolls data due later in the session, a report that would highlight the durability of an economic recovery. A Reuters poll showed median forecasts are for 175,000 jobs being shed, slower than the 263,000 lost in September, with the jobless rate rising to 9.9 percent. If the numbers disappoint, investors are likely to flock to the U.S dollar and the yen JPY=, while a strong report could see high-yielding currencies gain.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.5900-7.6400
Rand / Euro	11.2800-11.3300
Rand / Sterling	12.6000-12.6500
Jpy / Rand	11.90 -11.95
Jpy / Usd	90.645
Usd / Euro	1.4875
Gbp / Usd	1.6620
Gold	$1 091.00
Brent	$78.63
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.53000-7.7300
Rand / Euro	11.2000-11.4000
Rand / Sterling	12.5000-12.7000
Jpy / Rand	11.85-12.05

Budget Tomorrow

RDG Brokers — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 09:18:02 +0000

South Africa’s rand remained in a 7.40/$ to 7.50/$ trading range on Friday. We do not expect too much action today as we have quite a busy week on the economic front. Locally we have the mini budget tomorrow and the release of inflation figures later in the week. The U.S. 3RD quarter GDP will also be released later this week. Markets should remain relatively quiet until all economic data has been analyzed by market participants. The dollar fell to a 14-month low against the euro on Monday as a Chinese report saying Beijing should increase its holdings of euros and yen in its foreign reserves led investors to sell the greenback. The yen also got a boost from the opinion piece in the Financial News, a paper published by the People’s Bank of China, which said that the dollar should remain the principal currency in China’s foreign exchange reserves but that the share of Euros and yen should increase. The Australian dollar also benefited from the article as investors believe the Aussie has been included in the currencies that China and other central banks have bought to diversify foreign reserves. “The comments from China are pretty strong and that is supporting the euro,” said Tony Bieber, forex analyst at Suncorp.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.4300-7.4800
Rand / Euro	11.2000-11.2500
Rand / Sterling	12.1500-12.2000
Jpy / Rand	12.28 -12.33
Jpy / Usd	91.80
Usd / Euro	1.5043
Gbp / Usd	1.6310
Gold	$1 055.00
Brent	$78.44
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.3500-7.5500
Rand / Euro	11.1500-11.3500
Rand / Sterling	12.1000-12.3000
Jpy / Rand	12.20-12.40

Emerging Markets Boosted

RDG Brokers — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 10:08:30 +0000

South Africa’s rand remains well supported as stock markets rallied globally, giving emerging markets a boost. We had Reserve Bank asking for prices in the rand last week and currently we are heading to similar levels. It will be interesting to see whether they will intervene? The local unit also gained a lot versus the euro and pound and currently we are at levels seen two years ago on the cross currencies. The dollar rose against the yen on Tuesday as its rebound from eight-month low prompted investors to trim short positions and after Japan’s finance minister said intervention was possible in extreme cases. After backtracking on Monday from remarks suggesting he was comfortable with recent yen strength, Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii spoke again, saying he would not rule out taking action if currency moves were irregular but that not promoting a weak currency was the correct policy. The yen, already on the back foot early after automatic dollar buy orders were triggered around 89.80 yen per dollar, weakened past 90.00 yen but later edged off its lows and analysts said his comments did not mean Japan’s forex policy had changed.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.3700-7.4200
Rand / Euro	10.8000-10.8500
Rand / Sterling	11.7200-11.7700
Jpy / Rand	12.12 -12.17
Jpy / Usd	89.80
Usd / Euro	1.4611
Gbp / Usd	1.5860
Gold	$991.00
Brent	$65.69
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.33000-7.5300
Rand / Euro	10.7500-10.9500
Rand / Sterling	11.7000-11.9000
Jpy / Rand	12.00-12.20

Rand too Strong??

RDG Brokers — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 07:57:38 +0000

South Africa’s rand weakened yesterday mainly due to profit taking and comments by outgoing Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni and officials from that IMF that a strong rand is not ideal for the South African economy. The local unit weakened to trade above 7.60/$ but is currently slightly stronger at 7.57/$. As we know comments by official only has a short term effect on currencies if there is now physical intervention in the market. Analysts will continue to monitor the MTN/Bharti developments for further clues.

The dollar remained vulnerable on Friday near its lowest level this year against the euro as investors continued to favour other riskier and growth-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Improving economic data and company earnings added to growing investor confidence and kept the New Zealand dollar near its highest since late August last year and sterling close to a one-month peak hit on Thursday. The Australian dollar slightly lagged other higher-yielding currencies to rise after weaker-than-expected data on employment and retail sales this week cooled expectations for an interest rate hike as early as next month. But analysts said demand from Asian central banks diversifying their reserves out of the greenback kept providing strong support to the Aussie. Investors waited to see if a slew of Chinese data due on Friday morning will strengthen economic recovery hopes and encourage investors to buy more riskier assets and currencies by selling the low-yielding U.S. dollar.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
7.5500-7.6000

Rand / Euro
11.0000-11.0500

Rand / Sterling
12.6000-12.6500

Jpy / Rand
12.07-12.12

Jpy / Usd
91.40

Usd / Euro
1.4600

Gbp / Usd
1.66695

Gold
$1001.00

Brent
$70.43

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.4500-7.6500

Rand / Euro
10.9000-11.1000

Rand / Sterling
12.5000-12.7000

Jpy / Rand
12.00-12.20

One Year High

RDG Brokers — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 07:51:29 +0000

We continued in a 7.50/$ to 7.60/$ trading range yesterday. We have seen big demand for currency below the 7.50/$ mark and dealers are hesitant to take on large positions before getting more information on MTN/Bharti transaction. We will probably see more consolidation and trade in a 7.50/$ to 7.70/$ band until fresh factors emerges.

Asian stocks drifted lower after hitting a one-year high earlier on Wednesday and the dollar was stuck near a one-year low as investors, hopeful of an economic recovery, held back from moving more money into risky assets. European shares were set to stumble at the start, with futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 slipping 0.3 percent in early trade. The dollar, a haven for investors in difficult times, has been battered this week as market participants have favoured high-yielding investments and emerging markets. Gold’s surge above $1,000 has powered gains in other commodities and raised worries that money is being shifted out of the dollar. The Australian dollar slipped after retail sales surprisingly dropped in July and housing lending cooled. That raised questions about how soon the central bank would start raising interest rates.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
7.5300-7.5800

Rand / Euro
10.9200-10.9700

Rand / Sterling
12.4300-12.4800

Jpy / Rand
12.22-12.27

Jpy / Usd
92.45

Usd / Euro
1.4486

Gbp / Usd
1.6500

Gold
$1 001.00

Brent
$69.63

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.5000-7.7000

Rand / Euro
10.8500-11.0500

Rand / Sterling
12.4000-12.6000

Jpy / Rand
12.10-12.30

Rand Dips over Budget Expectations

RDG Brokers — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:40:36 +0000

We remain fairly quiet, however the rand weakened overnight after minister of finance Gordhan warned that the budget deficit could be much larger than expected. We are in the mid 7.80 and do not expect too much action. In the bigger picture we are in the 7.70/$ to 8.30/$ trading range, which is good news for both importers and exporters as stability is all that is required to manage currency risk.

Dollar interbank rates fell to record lows in Singapore on Wednesday in spite of a slight pick-up in interest rate volatilities and wider spreads as fresh fear over bank failures caused financial stocks to fall. Private equity and hedge fund Cerberus Capital Management, which has been hit hard by investment losses, on Tuesday dismissed rumours it is in danger of default. But trading in Asia continued to be dogged by fears that a major bank or a hedge fund would fail, a factor that has played a part in driving U.S. stock markets down three days in a row.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
7. 7.8500-7.9000 -7.7700

Rand / Euro
11.1800-11.2300

Rand / Sterling
12.6800-12.7300

Jpy / Rand
11.75-11.80

Jpy / Usd
92.80

Usd / Euro
1.4215

Gbp / Usd
1.6130

Gold
$955.00

Brent
$68.02

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.7500-7.9500

Rand / Euro
11.1000-11.3000

Rand / Sterling
12.6500-12.8500

Jpy / Rand
11.65-11.85

Emerging Markets Bullish

RDG Brokers — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 15:34:27 +0000

South Africa’s rand strengthened overnight after the sentiment turned bullish on emerging markets. We should also keep in mind as we move closer to the 31st of August which is the new date for the report back on the MTN/Bharti negotiations. This deal could generate a substantial inflow of dollars. The euro is also stronger this morning which is another factor supporting the local unit. We are still within the 7.70/$ to 8.30/$ trading range.

The euro rose against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday, recovering from two-week lows after a surprisingly strong poll of German investor sentiment raised some optimism about the euro zone economy. A recovery in European share prices from steep losses the previous day also helped to boost currencies considered to be higher risk which had suffered on Monday. As a result, the dollar and the yen fell across the board. The euro hit the day’s high against the dollar of $1.4155 after the ZEW economic research institute’s economic sentiment index rose to 56.1 in August from 39.5 in July, its highest level since April 2006 and beating forecasts for 45.0. By 1134 GMT, the pair had retreated to $1.4096, little changed on the day but above $1.4045 hit on Monday, its lowest since late July. Some analysts said the poll suggested the German economy would continue to grow this year after data last week showed an unexpected rise in gross domestic product in the second quarter. But others said the survey, which ended its polling period after the GDP data, may have been too optimistic and added the German economy continues to face major hurdles before any recovery, a view which was helping to cap euro gains.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
7.9300-7.9800

Rand / Euro
11.3000-11.3500

Rand / Sterling
13.1500-13.2000

Jpy / Rand
11.83-11.88

Jpy / Usd
94.40

Usd / Euro
1.4220

Gbp / Usd
1.6545

Gold
$944.00

Brent
$74.48

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.9000-8.1000

Rand / Euro
11.2500-11.4500

Rand / Sterling
13.1000-13.3000

Jpy / Rand
11.75-11.95

Rand Holding Up

RDG Brokers — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 08:30:23 +0000

South Africa’s rand remained in narrow ranges, and is trading in an 8.00/$ to 8.15/$ trading range. The second quarter GDP came out as expected and had little impact on the local unit. The euro dropped overnight causing the rand to weaken slightly against the dollar. We have seen our currency regaining lost ground against European currencies as well as the Aussie dollar. Trading should remain fairly quiet and within the 8.00/$ to 8.20/$ band. The euro rose against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday, recovering from two-week lows after a surprisingly strong poll of German investor sentiment raised some optimism about the euro zone economy. A recovery in European share prices from steep losses the previous day also helped to boost currencies considered to be higher risk which had suffered on Monday. As a result, the dollar and the yen fell across the board. The euro hit the day’s high against the dollar of $1.4155 after the ZEW economic research institute’s economic sentiment index rose to 56.1 in August from 39.5 in July, its highest level since April 2006 and beating forecasts for 45.0.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	8.0700-8.1200
Rand / Euro	11.4000-11.4500
Rand / Sterling	13.3000-13.3500
Jpy / Rand	11.60-11.65
Jpy / Usd	94.20
Usd / Euro	1.4098
Gbp / Usd	1.6468
Gold	$937.00
Brent	$71.72
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	8.0000-8.2000
Rand / Euro	11.3000-11.5000
Rand / Sterling	13.2000-13.4000
Jpy / Rand	11.55-11.75

Trading a Little Slow

RDG Brokers — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:04:59 +0000

South Africa’s rand recovered slightly overnight and is currently trading at around 8.10/$. The dollar once again failed to break above 8.20/$ after speculators probably squared of long currency positions ahead of the GDP data today. Trading will remain slow as banks are reporting low currency flows, due to summer holidays in Europe and we should remain in a 8.00 to 8.20/$ trading, unless we get a surprise on the GDP number which is expected at -3.2 percent for the 2nd quarter. The yen fell on Tuesday, retreating from its highest levels this month against the dollar and euro and losing ground against commodity-linked currencies, although twitchy Asian share markets made trade choppy. Eyes were on stocks after Monday’s volatile session in which shares in Shanghai lost 5.8 percent and currencies associated with risk-trades, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, shed more than 1 percent. The euro and the Aussie and kiwi dollars all rose about half a percent against the Japanese currency and clawed back some lost ground against the dollar as investors covered short positions built in the sell-off the previous day, dealers said.

Current levels

Rand / Usd 8.0800-8.1300

Rand / Euro 11.4000-11.4500

Rand / Sterling 13.2500-13.3000

Jpy / Rand 11.72-11.77

Jpy / Usd 95.15

Usd / Euro 1.4133

Gbp / Usd 1.6395

Gold $940.00

Brent $70.75

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd 8.0000-8.2000

Rand / Euro 11.3000-11.5000

Rand / Sterling 13.2000-13.4000

Jpy / Rand 11.65-11.85