RDG BROKERS » trade

U.S trade Deficit to China Up

RDG Brokers — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 07:47:26 +0000

South Africa’s rand was unable to hold on to gains below 7.30/$ which caused investors and speculators to buy back short dollar positions. This morning we are back above 7.40/$, we should keep in mind that S.A. Reserve bank is not comfortable with the rand’s strength and will probably continue to build reserves into any rand rallies. Trading conditions are thin which will increase volatility. The exchange rate of the Yuan is not responsible for the United States’ widening trade deficit with China, China’s ambassador to the country said on Thursday. “Personally, I think the root cause for the fiscal deficit and the trade deficit here (in the United States) is not really the exchange rate of the (Yuan),” Zhou Wenzhong told a National Committee on United States-China Relations dinner. China has had a huge trade surplus with the United States, and is the largest foreign holder of U.S. government bonds. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened 9.2 percent in September to $22.1 billion, the highest since November 2008, according to U.S. data released last month. Zhou said that the Yuan had appreciated by some 20 percent since reform of the exchange rate began in 2005. China allowed the Yuan to rise from 2005 to 2008 before effectively repegging it to help its exporters cope with a slump in global demand. It has moved little since.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.4000-7.4500
Rand / Euro	11.1200-11.1700
Rand / Sterling	12.2300-12.2800
Jpy / Rand	11.85-11.90
Jpy / Usd	88.10
Usd / Euro	1.5055
Gbp / Usd	1.6533
Gold	$1 204.00
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.3000-7.5000
Rand / Euro	11.0500-11.2500
Rand / Sterling	12.1500-12.3500
Jpy / Rand	11.80-12.00

One Year High

RDG Brokers — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 07:51:29 +0000

We continued in a 7.50/$ to 7.60/$ trading range yesterday. We have seen big demand for currency below the 7.50/$ mark and dealers are hesitant to take on large positions before getting more information on MTN/Bharti transaction. We will probably see more consolidation and trade in a 7.50/$ to 7.70/$ band until fresh factors emerges.

Asian stocks drifted lower after hitting a one-year high earlier on Wednesday and the dollar was stuck near a one-year low as investors, hopeful of an economic recovery, held back from moving more money into risky assets. European shares were set to stumble at the start, with futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 slipping 0.3 percent in early trade. The dollar, a haven for investors in difficult times, has been battered this week as market participants have favoured high-yielding investments and emerging markets. Gold’s surge above $1,000 has powered gains in other commodities and raised worries that money is being shifted out of the dollar. The Australian dollar slipped after retail sales surprisingly dropped in July and housing lending cooled. That raised questions about how soon the central bank would start raising interest rates.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
7.5300-7.5800

Rand / Euro
10.9200-10.9700

Rand / Sterling
12.4300-12.4800

Jpy / Rand
12.22-12.27

Jpy / Usd
92.45

Usd / Euro
1.4486

Gbp / Usd
1.6500

Gold
$1 001.00

Brent
$69.63

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.5000-7.7000

Rand / Euro
10.8500-11.0500

Rand / Sterling
12.4000-12.6000

Jpy / Rand
12.10-12.30

Positive News

RDG Brokers — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:15:14 +0000

South Africa’s rand continued to strengthen yesterday after much better than expected trade figures. A trade surplus of 2 billion rand was reported versus a 1.4 billion rand deficit the previous month. The dollar rallied against most major currencies overnight as the latest moves we see are typical of thin trading conditions due to European summer vacations, causing the rand to give back some of its gains the dollar however the local unit is much stronger against the European currencies this morning.

The U.S. recession is likely to end later in 2009, ushering in a “frustratingly slow” recovery marked by continued high unemployment, a top Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday. Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Fed, looked for inflation to stay low for several years, and hinted that the central bank should be in no hurry to raise interest rates even once growth turns positive. “I am not optimistic that the economy will spring back to normal anytime soon,” Yellen told the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco. The U.S. jobless rate is likely to rise from its current level, and it could take several years to return to full employment, Yellen said — a period that could intensify downward pressure on wages and prices. In her first extended remarks on the economy since early May, Yellen said that undesirably low inflation was the biggest issue on the medium-term horizon.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
7.7300-7.7800

Rand / Euro
10.8300 – 10.8800

Rand / Sterling
12.6800 – 12.7300

Jpy / Rand
12.50- 12.55

Jpy / Usd
96.82

Usd / Euro
1.4040

Gbp / Usd
1.6425

Gold
$69.96

Brent
$930.00

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.7000-7.9000

Rand / Euro
10.8000-11.0000

Rand / Sterling
12.6500-12.8500

Jpy / Rand
12.45-12.65

Thanks to Accredinet Financial Solutions for Article