RDG BROKERS » volatile

Rand takes slight knock

RDG Brokers — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 08:32:41 +0000

South Africa’s rand weakened in a volatile session yesterday, breaking back above the 7.50/$ mark overnight. The euro dropped below 1.50 against the dollar as well as a report that Dubai’s debt is much bigger than anticipated was also cited as one of the reasons for our local units weakness. I believe the main reason for this volatility is we are going into silly season and with most major players out, and speculators are having some fun forcing currencies in a direction. Most moves from now till mid January will probably not make any sense! The yen hit its highest level in 14 years on the dollar on Friday and jumped against higher-yielding currencies as investors cut risk trades on concerns about debt problems in Dubai, while Japan signalled growing discomfort with the surge. After plummeting on Thursday, the dollar plunged to a new 14-year trough below 85 yen as investors unwound yen-funded carry trades in the likes of the Australian and New Zealand dollars. In a market made thinner by a U.S. holiday on Thursday, Japanese exporters fuelled the drop by buying yen ahead of the month-end, while traders also dumped dollars due to option triggers at 85.00 yen, and sell orders kicked in below that level.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.5500-7.6000
Rand / Euro	11.2800-11.3300
Rand / Sterling	12.4000-12.4500
Jpy / Rand	11.32-11.37
Jpy / Usd	86.18
Usd / Euro	1.4908
Gbp / Usd	1.6390
Gold	$1 170.00
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.4500-7.6500
Rand / Euro	11.2000-11.4000
Rand / Sterling	12.3000-12.5000
Jpy / Rand	11.25-11.45

Courtesy of Accredinet

Volatile Friday

RDG Brokers — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 09:17:15 +0000

South Africa’s rand had once again a volatile session on Friday; the local unit weakened in morning trade however it regained lost ground in late afternoon. The local unit tested 7.80/$ and even though U.S. figures were bad the rand strengthened and closed near the 7.60/$ mark probably due to profit taking. We could see some consolidation and trade a 7.50/$ to 7.80/$ trading range until fresh economic or business factors are released. We have seen big exporter interest around the 7.80/$ mark and importers will cover below 7.60/$. Group of Seven financial ministers and central bank governors will likely discuss the economic and financial developments that are behind recent currency moves at their meeting this weekend, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Friday. “Compared with the G20, the G7 consists of members that have major financial markets. That’s why it’s easier for the G7 to be a forum for discussing the foreign exchange market, Shirakawa told reporters upon his arrival in Istanbul. Finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 — the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada — will meet in Istanbul on Saturday on the sidelines of meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Current levels
Rand / Usd	7.6000-7.6500
Rand / Euro	11.1500-11.2000
Rand / Sterling	12.1500-12.2000
Jpy / Rand	11.75-11.80
Jpy / Usd	89.78
Usd / Euro	1.46430
Gbp / Usd	1.5977
Gold	$1 004.00
Brent	$68.15
Expected ranges
Rand / Usd	7.5500-7.7500
Rand / Euro	11.1000-11.3000
Rand / Sterling	12.1000-12.3000
Jpy / Rand	11.70-11.90

Inflation Looking Better

RDG Brokers — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 08:17:16 +0000

After weakening yesterday, South Africa’s rand recovered and is currently trading in the lower 7.80/$. CPI inflation data released yesterday was better than expected, today we have PPI data and market expectation is at -3.8 percent. The inflation data should not impact the rand too much; however 2nd quarter GDP data which will be released tomorrow will be watched by traders and investors. In the meantime we should remain in a 7.75/$ to 7.95/$ trading range.

The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Thursday after China’s central bank said it would stick to a loose monetary policy to consolidate its economic recovery, easing market worries about its growth. Chinese stocks rose, though in volatile trade, and encouraged some investors to crawl back to riskier and higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar. The Chinese central bank’s vice governor, Su Ning, was reported as saying it would also use market tools instead of quota-style controls to ensure credit growth is appropriate. His remarks came after Chinese stocks fell the most in eight months on Wednesday amid worries that China may take steps to tighten money supply and banks could begin to restrict lending.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
7.8000-7.8500
Rand / Euro
11.0000-11.0500
Rand / Sterling
12.9000-12.9500
Jpy / Rand
12.10-12.15
Jpy / Usd
95.00
Usd / Euro
1.4075
Gbp / Usd
1.6485
Gold
$930.00
Brent
$67.00

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
7.7500-7.9500
Rand / Euro
11.0000-11.2000
Rand / Sterling
12.8000-13.0000
Jpy / Rand
12.00-12.20

Courtesy of Accredinet Financial Solutions

Volatile Markets

RDG Brokers — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 08:44:23 +0000

We got back to reality last night as fund managers scrambled to close short rand positions after markets dropped in the U.S. Trading is extremely volatile as speculators continue to take advantage of thin markets. Focus has shifted back to the global recession as risk aversion continues to drive currency markets. We are heading towards the upper end of the 7.90/$ to 8.20/$ trading range.

There is much uncertainty on prospects for an economic recovery, which should materialise throughout 2010, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in an interview published on Wednesday. “There is the risk of arriving at the appointed time with a banking system that is not able to support demand for financing,” Bini Smaghi told daily Il Messaggero. He said there was still uncertainty on the impact of recession on banks’ bad loans and the bank system was still unable to finance itself over the medium and long term. “This represents a problem because without that financing the provision of loans to the real economy risks being blocked, worsening the crisis,” he was quoted as saying. Bini Smaghi said other risks to recovery were the oil price and the rise of unemployment.

Current levels

Rand / Usd
8.1000-8.1500

Rand / Euro
11.2500 – 11.3000

Rand / Sterling
13.0500 – 13.1000

Jpy / Rand
11.60- 11.65

Jpy / Usd
94.35

Usd / Euro
1.3908

Gbp / Usd
1.6115

Gold
$924.00

Brent
$62.55

Expected ranges

Rand / Usd
8.0000-8.2000

Rand / Euro
11.2000-11.4000

Rand / Sterling
13.0000-13.2000

Jpy / Rand
11.55-11.75